• DOI:10.1126/SCIENCE.1081056
• Corpus ID: 19455675

Abrupt Climate Change

@article{Alley2003AbruptCC,
  title={Abrupt Climate Change},
  author={Richard B. Alley and Jochem Marotzke and William Nordhaus and Jonathan T. Overpeck and Dorothy M. Peteet and Roger A. Pielke and Raymond T. Pierrehumbert and Peter B. Rhines and Thomas F. Stocker and Lynne D. Talley and John M. Wallace},
  journal={Science},
  year={2003},
  volume={299},
  pages={2005 - 2010}
}

• R. Alley, J. Marotzke, +8 authors J. Wallace
• Published 28 March 2003
• Environmental Science
• Science

Large, abrupt, and widespread climate changes with major impacts have occurred repeatedly in the past, when the Earth system was forced across thresholds. Although abrupt climate changes can occur for many reasons, it is conceivable that human forcing of climate change is increasing the probability of large, abrupt events. Were such an event to recur, the economic and ecological impacts could be large and potentially serious. Unpredictability exhibited near climate thresholds in simple models shows that some uncertainty will always be associated with projections. In light of these uncertainties, policy-makers should consider expanding research into abrupt climate change, improving monitoring systems, and taking actions designed to enhance the adaptability and resilience of ecosystems and economies.