ARIMA forecasting of COVID-19 incidence in Italy, Russia, and the USA

  title={ARIMA forecasting of COVID-19 incidence in Italy, Russia, and the USA},
  author={Gaetano Perone},
  journal={SSRN Electronic Journal},
The novel Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is a severe respiratory infection that officially occurred in Wuhan, China, in December 2019. In late February, the disease began to spread quickly across the world, causing serious health, social, and economic emergencies. This paper aims to forecast the short to medium-term incidence of COVID-19 epidemic through the medium of an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, applied to Italy, Russia, and the USA The analysis is performed on… 
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Asia , Europe , Africa , South America , and theWorld
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Comparison of ARIMA, ETS, NNAR, TBATS and Hybrid Models to Forecast the Second Wave of COVID-19 Hospitalizations in Italy
The results show that the hybrid models, except for ARIMA-ETS, are better at capturing the linear and non-linear epidemic patterns, by outperforming the respective single models; and the number of COVID-19-related hospitalized with mild symptoms and in ICU will rapidly increase in the next weeks.
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Estimation of COVID-19 prevalence in Italy, Spain, and France
  • Zeynep Ceylan
  • Geography, Medicine
    Science of The Total Environment
  • 2020
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