A verification framework for interannual to decadal predictions experiments

  title={A verification framework for interannual to decadal predictions experiments},
  author={Luke Goddard and Arvind Kumar and A. Solomon and D. Smith and Gerben de Boer and Peter Gonzalez and Viatcheslav V. Kharin and W. Merryfield and Clara Deser and Scott J. Mason and Ben P. Kirtman and R. Msadek and R. Sutton and E. Hawkins and Tyler Fricker and Gabriele C. Hegerl and Christopher A. T. Ferro and David B. Stephenson and Gerald A. Meehl and Tim Stockdale and R. Burgman and Arthur M. Greene and Yuriy Kushnir and Matt Newman and J. Carton and Ichiro Fukumori and Thomas L. Delworth},
Decadal predictions have a high profile in the climate science community and beyond, yet very little is known about their skill. Nor is there any agreed protocol for estimating their skill. This paper proposes a sound and coordinated framework for verification of decadal hindcast experiments. The framework is illustrated for decadal hindcasts tailored to meet the requirements and specifications of CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5). The chosen metrics address key questions… CONTINUE READING