A sampling approach to biases in conditional probability judgments: beyond base rate neglect and statistical format.

@article{Fiedler2000ASA,
  title={A sampling approach to biases in conditional probability judgments: beyond base rate neglect and statistical format.},
  author={Klaus Fiedler and Bernd Brinkmann and Tilmann Betsch and Beate Wild},
  journal={Journal of experimental psychology. General},
  year={2000},
  volume={129 3},
  pages={399-418}
}
Conditional probability judgments of rare events are often inflated. Early accounts assumed a general deficit in using statistical base rates. More recent approaches predict improvement when problems are presented in frequency format or refer to natural categories. The present theory focuses on sampling processes. Experiment 1 showed that a seeming advantage of frequency over probability formats is due to a confounded factor, the need to mentally transform stimulus samples. An information… CONTINUE READING

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