A recent tipping point in the Arctic sea-ice cover: abrupt and persistent increase in the seasonal cycle since 2007

@article{Livina2012ART,
  title={A recent tipping point in the Arctic sea-ice cover: abrupt and persistent increase in the seasonal cycle since 2007},
  author={Valerie Livina and Timothy M. Lenton},
  journal={arXiv: Geophysics},
  year={2012}
}
There is ongoing debate over whether Arctic sea-ice has already passed a `tipping point', or whether it will do so in the future. Several recent studies argue that the loss of summer sea ice does not involve an irreversible bifurcation, because it is highly reversible in models. However, a broader definition of a `tipping point' also includes other abrupt, non-linear changes that are neither bifurcations nor necessarily irreversible. Examination of satellite data for Arctic sea-ice area reveals… Expand
Trends in sea-ice variability on the way to an ice-free Arctic
It has been widely debated whether Arctic sea-ice loss can reach a tipping point beyond which a large sea-ice area disappears abruptly. The theory of dynamical systems predicts a slowing down when aExpand
The Arctic sea ice extent change connected to Pacific decadal variability
Abstract. After an unprecedented retreat, the total Arctic sea ice cover for the post-2007 period is characterized by low extent and a remarkable increase in annual cycle amplitude. We haveExpand
Statistical indicators of Arctic sea-ice stability - prospects and limitations
Abstract. We examine the relationship between the mean and the variability of Arctic sea-ice coverage and volume in a large range of climates from globally ice-covered to globally ice-freeExpand
A comparison of tracking methods for extreme cyclones in the Arctic basin
Dramatic climate changes have occurred in recent decades over the Arctic region, and very noticeably in near-surface warming and reductions in sea ice extent. In a climatological sense, ArcticExpand
Response of the Dominant Modes of Atmospheric Circulation in the Northern Hemisphere to a Projected Arctic Sea Ice Loss in 2007
This study revisits the Arctic sea ice extent (SIE) for the extended period of 1979–2015 based on satellite measurements and finds that the Arctic SIE experienced three different periods: a moderateExpand
Regional dependence in the timing of onset of rapid decline in Arctic sea ice concentration
Arctic sea ice concentration from satellite passive microwave measurements is analyzed to assess the form and timing of the onset of decline of recent ice loss, and the regional dependence of theExpand
Analysis of an Arctic Sea Ice Loss Model in the Limit of a Discontinuous Albedo
TLDR
This analysis analyzes an Arctic energy balance model in the limit as a smoothing parameter associated with ice-albedo feedback tends to zero, which introduces a discontinuity boundary to the dynamical systems model. Expand
Delving into the relationship between autumn Arctic sea ice and central–eastern Eurasian winter climate
Abstract Whether recent Arctic sea ice loss is responsible for recent severe winters over mid-latitude continents has emerged as a major debate among climate scientists owing to short records ofExpand
Atmospheric impacts of Arctic sea-ice loss, 1979–2009: separating forced change from atmospheric internal variability
The ongoing loss of Arctic sea-ice cover has implications for the wider climate system. The detection and importance of the atmospheric impacts of sea-ice loss depends, in part, on the relativeExpand
Less climatic resilience in the Arctic
Abstract Twenty years ago the Arctic system was more resilient than now as sea ice was three times thicker than today. Heavier and more persistent sea ice provided a buffer against the influence ofExpand
...
1
2
3
4
5
...

References

SHOWING 1-10 OF 49 REFERENCES
A recent bifurcation in Arctic sea-ice cover
Arctic sea-ice has experienced striking reductions in areal coverage, especially in recent summers, and summer ice cover is forecast to disappear later this century. This has fuelled debate overExpand
Nonlinear threshold behavior during the loss of Arctic sea ice
In light of the rapid recent retreat of Arctic sea ice, a number of studies have discussed the possibility of a critical threshold (or ‘‘tipping point’’) beyond which the ice–albedo feedback causesExpand
The future of ice sheets and sea ice: Between reversible retreat and unstoppable loss
  • D. Notz
  • Geology, Medicine
  • Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
  • 2009
TLDR
In a cooler climate, sea ice could recover rapidly from the loss it has experienced in recent years, and why this recent rapid retreat of Arctic summer sea ice might largely be a consequence of a slow shift in ice-thickness distribution, which will lead to strongly increased year-to-year variability of the ArcticSummer sea-ice extent. Expand
The thinning of Arctic sea ice, 1988-2003 : Have we passed a tipping point?
Recent observations of summer Arctic sea ice over the satellite era show that record or near-record lows for the ice extent occurred in the years 2002–05. To determine the physical processesExpand
Bifurcations leading to summer Arctic sea ice loss
[1] There is significant interest in whether there could be a bifurcation, sometimes referred to as a “tipping point,” associated with Arctic sea ice loss. A low-order model of Arctic sea ice hasExpand
Does the Arctic sea ice have a tipping point
[1] Two IPCC fourth assessment report climate models have Arctic Ocean simulations that become sea-ice-free year around in 1%/year CO2 increase to quadrupling experiments. These runs are examined forExpand
Geographic muting of changes in the Arctic sea ice cover
The seasonal cycle in Arctic sea ice extent is asymmetric. Its amplitude has grown in recent decades as the ice has retreated more rapidly in summer than in winter. These seasonal disparities haveExpand
Reconstructed changes in Arctic sea ice over the past 1,450 years
TLDR
A network of high-resolution terrestrial proxies from the circum-Arctic region is used to reconstruct past extents of summer sea ice, and shows that both the duration and magnitude of the current decline in sea ice seem to be unprecedented for the past 1,450 years. Expand
The Early Twentieth-Century Warming in the Arctic—A Possible Mechanism
The huge warming of the Arctic that started in the early 1920s and lasted for almost two decades is one of the most spectacular climate events of the twentieth century. During the peak periodExpand
Arctic sea ice decline: Faster than forecast
[1] From 1953 to 2006, Arctic sea ice extent at the end of the melt season in September has declined sharply. All models participating in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change FourthExpand
...
1
2
3
4
5
...