A re-examination of analysts ’ superiority over time-series forecasts

@inproceedings{Bradshaw2010ARO,
  title={A re-examination of analysts ’ superiority over time-series forecasts},
  author={Mark T. Bradshaw and Michael S. Drake},
  year={2010}
}
In this paper, we re-examine the widely-held belief that analysts’ earnings per share (EPS) forecasts are superior to forecasts from a time-series model. Using a naive random walk time-series model for annual earnings, we investigate whether and when analysts’ annual forecasts are superior. We also examine whether analysts’ forecasts approximate market expectations better than expectations from a simple random walk model. Our results indicate that simple random walk EPS forecasts are more… CONTINUE READING

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