A projection of severe near‐surface permafrost degradation during the 21st century

@article{Lawrence2005APO,
  title={A projection of severe near‐surface permafrost degradation during the 21st century},
  author={David M. Lawrence and Andrew Slater},
  journal={Geophysical Research Letters},
  year={2005},
  volume={32}
}
The current distribution and future projections of permafrost are examined in a fully coupled global climate model, the Community Climate System Model, version 3 (CCSM3) with explicit treatment of frozen soil processes. The spatial extent of simulated present‐day permafrost in CCSM3 agrees well with observational estimates – an area, excluding ice sheets, of 10.5 million km2. By 2100, as little as 1.0 million km2 of near‐surface permafrost remains. Freshwater discharge to the Arctic Ocean rises… 

Impacts of peat and vegetation on permafrost degradation under climate warming

Simulations of maximum annual thaw at a continuous and a discontinuous permafrost site in Canada were performed using Community Land Model version 3 (CLM3) and randomized historical climate records

Sensitivity of a model projection of near‐surface permafrost degradation to soil column depth and representation of soil organic matter

[1] The sensitivity of a global land-surface model projection of near-surface permafrost degradation is assessed with respect to explicit accounting of the thermal and hydrologic properties of soil

Disequilibrium response of permafrost thaw to climate warming in Canada over 1850–2100

Climate warming would induce permafrost thaw. However, the response of permafrost to atmospheric climate change could take from a few years to millennia. In this study, we simulated the transient

Diagnosing Present and Future Permafrost from Climate Models

AbstractPermafrost is a characteristic aspect of the terrestrial Arctic and the fate of near-surface permafrost over the next century is likely to exert strong controls on Arctic hydrology and

Near‐surface permafrost degradation: How severe during the 21st century?

A previously presented model on nearly complete near‐surface permafrost degradation in the Arctic during the 21st century is critically reviewed. An alternative model with a more complete

Permafrost Thawing in Circum-Arctic and Highlands under Climatic Change Scenario Projected by Community Climate System Model (CCSM3)

From three-member ensemble projections under the climatic change scenario, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B, regional impacts of

Permafrost degradation and methane: low risk of biogeochemical climate-warming feedback

Climate change and permafrost thaw have been suggested to increase high latitude methane emissions that could potentially represent a strong feedback to the climate system. Using an integrated

Soil-frost-enabled soil-moisture–precipitation feedback over northern high latitudes

Abstract. Permafrost or perennially frozen ground is an important part of the terrestrial cryosphere; roughly one quarter of Earth's land surface is underlain by permafrost. The currently observed
...

References

SHOWING 1-10 OF 34 REFERENCES

Impact of global warming on permafrost conditions in a coupled GCM

A climate change scenario experiment conducted with the state‐of‐the‐art coupled atmosphere‐ocean general circulation model ECHAM4/OPYC3 is analysed with the objective to quantify changes in

Thawing sub‐arctic permafrost: Effects on vegetation and methane emissions

Ecosystems along the 0°C mean annual isotherm are arguably among the most sensitive to changing climate and mires in these regions emit significant amounts of the important greenhouse gas methane

Climate Change and Hazard Zonation in the Circum-Arctic Permafrost Regions

The permafrost regions currently occupy about one quarter of the Earth's land area.Climate-change scenarios indicate that global warming will be amplified in the polarregions, and could lead to a

Permafrost dynamics in the 20th and 21st centuries along the East Siberian transect

[1] The East Siberian transect, which has been designated by the International Geosphere-Biosphere Program (IGBP) as its Far East transect, has unique permafrost conditions. Not only does permafrost

A process-based model for quantifying the impact of climate change on permafrost thermal regimes

[1] Air temperature at northern high latitudes has increased at a higher rate than the global mean, and most general circulation models project that this pattern will continue. Climate warming can

Implications of climate change for freshwater inflows to the Arctic Ocean

[1] Observational evidence suggests that river inflows to the Arctic Ocean have increased over the last 30 years. Continued increases have the potential to alter the freshwater balance in the Arctic

PERMAFROST ZONATION AND CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE: RESULTS FROM TRANSIENT GENERAL CIRCULATION MODELS

Numerous studies have demonstrated that both global patterns and local details of permafrost distribution are highly responsive to climatic fluctuations, at several temporal and spatial scales.

Spatial and temporal variability in active layer thickness over the Russian Arctic drainage basin

[1] Changes in active layer thickness (ALT) over northern high-latitude permafrost regions have important impacts on the surface energy balance, hydrologic cycle, carbon exchange between the

Role of Land-Surface Changes in Arctic Summer Warming

It is shown that terrestrial changes in summer albedo contribute substantially to recent high-latitude warming trends and the continuation of current trends in shrub and tree expansion could further amplify this atmospheric heating by two to seven times.

Response of subarctic vegetation to transient climatic change on the Seward Peninsula in north‐west Alaska

Understanding the response of terrestrial ecosystems to climatic warming is a challenge because of the complex interactions of climate, disturbance, and recruitment across the landscape. We use a