A projection of severe near‐surface permafrost degradation during the 21st century

  title={A projection of severe near‐surface permafrost degradation during the 21st century},
  author={David M. Lawrence and Andrew Slater},
  journal={Geophysical Research Letters},
The current distribution and future projections of permafrost are examined in a fully coupled global climate model, the Community Climate System Model, version 3 (CCSM3) with explicit treatment of frozen soil processes. The spatial extent of simulated present‐day permafrost in CCSM3 agrees well with observational estimates – an area, excluding ice sheets, of 10.5 million km2. By 2100, as little as 1.0 million km2 of near‐surface permafrost remains. Freshwater discharge to the Arctic Ocean rises… 

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