A probability and decision-model analysis of PROVOST seasonal multi-model ensemble integrations

@inproceedings{Palmer2000APA,
  title={A probability and decision-model analysis of PROVOST seasonal multi-model ensemble integrations},
  author={Timothy N. Palmer and {\vC}edo Brankovi{\'c} and David Tenney Sid Richardson},
  year={2000}
}
A probabilistic analysis is made of seasonal ensemble integrations from the PROVOST project (PRediction Of climate Variations On Seasonal to interannual Time-scales), with emphasis on the Brier score and related Murphy decomposition, and the relative operating characteristic. To illustrate the significance of these results to potential users, results from the analysis of the relative operating characteristic are input to a simple decision model. The decision-model analysis is used to define a… CONTINUE READING

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