A probabilistic view on rupture predictability: All earthquakes evolve similarly

  title={A probabilistic view on rupture predictability: All earthquakes evolve similarly},
  author={Jannes Munchmeyer and Ulf Leser and Frederik Tilmann},
  journal={Geophysical Research Letters},
Ruptures of the largest earthquakes can last between a few seconds and several minutes. An early assessment of the final earthquake size is essential for early warning systems. However, it is still unclear when in the rupture history this final size can be predicted. Here we introduce a probabilistic view of rupture evolution how likely is the event to become large allowing for a clear and wellfounded answer with implications for earthquake physics and early warning. We apply our approach to… 

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