A novel probabilistic risk analysis to determine the vulnerability of ecosystems to extreme climatic events

@inproceedings{Oijen2013ANP,
  title={A novel probabilistic risk analysis to determine the vulnerability of ecosystems to extreme climatic events},
  author={Marcel van Oijen and Christian Beer and Wolfgang Cramer and Anja Rammig and Markus Reichstein and Susanne Rolinski and Jean-François Soussana},
  year={2013}
}
We present a simple method of probabilistic risk analysis for ecosystems. The only requirements are time series—modelled or measured—of environment and ecosystem variables. Risk is defined as the product of hazard probability and ecosystem vulnerability. Vulnerability is the expected difference in ecosystem performance between years with and without hazardous conditions. We show an application to drought risk for net primary productivity of coniferous forests across Europe, for both recent and… CONTINUE READING

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