Using Monte Carlo simulations to estimate relative fire ignition danger in a low-to medium fire prone region
- M Conedera, D Torriani, C Neff, C Ricotta, S Bajocco, GB Pezzatti
- For Ecol Manag
Recent advances in fire management led landscape managers to adopt an integrated fire fighting strategy in which fire suppression is supported by prevention actions and by knowledge of local fire history and ecology. In this framework, an accurate evaluation of fire ignition risk and its environmental drivers constitutes a basic step toward the optimization of fire management measures. In this paper, we propose a multivariate method for identifying and spatially portraying fire ignition risk across a complex and heterogeneous landscape such as the National Park of Cilento, Vallo di Diano, and Alburni (southern Italy). The proposed approach consists first in calculating the fire selectivity of several landscape features that are usually related to fire ignition, such as land cover or topography. Next, the fire selectivity values of single landscape features are combined with multivariate segmentation tools. The resulting fire risk map may constitute a valuable tool for optimizing fire prevention strategies and for efficiently allocating fire fighting resources.