• Corpus ID: 245769831

A model for an epidemic with contact tracing and cluster isolation, and a detection paradox

  title={A model for an epidemic with contact tracing and cluster isolation, and a detection paradox},
  author={Jean Bertoin},
We determine the distributions of some random variables related to a simple model of an epidemic with contact tracing and cluster isolation. This enables us to apply general limit theorems for super-critical CrumpMode-Jagers branching processes. Notably, we compute explicitly the asymptotic proportion of isolated clusters with a given size amongst all isolated clusters, conditionally on survival of the epidemic. Somewhat surprisingly, the latter differs from the distribution of the size of a… 

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