A mathematical model of ctDNA shedding predicts tumor detection size

  title={A mathematical model of ctDNA shedding predicts tumor detection size},
  author={Stefano Avanzini and David M. Kurtz and Jacob J. Chabon and Everett J. Moding and Sharon Seiko Hori and Sanjiv Sam Gambhir and Ash A. Alizadeh and Maximilian Diehn and Johannes G. Reiter},
  journal={Science Advances},
A mathematical model of tumor evolution and ctDNA shedding informs new cancer early detection approaches. Early cancer detection aims to find tumors before they progress to an incurable stage. To determine the potential of circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) for cancer detection, we developed a mathematical model of tumor evolution and ctDNA shedding to predict the size at which tumors become detectable. From 176 patients with stage I to III lung cancer, we inferred that, on average, 0.014% of a… 
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