A look into the future of the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe: an expert consultation

  title={A look into the future of the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe: an expert consultation},
  author={Emil Iftekhar and Viola Priesemann and Rudi Balling and Simone Bauer and Philippe Beutels and Andr{\'e} Calero Valdez and Sarah Cuschieri and Thomas Czypionka and Uga Dumpis and Enrico Glaab and Eva Grill and Claudia Hanson and Pirta Hotulainen and Peter Klimek and Mirjam E E Kretzschmar and Tyll Kruger and Jenny Krutzinna and Nicola Low and Helena Machado and Carlos Martins and Martin Mckee and Sebastian B. Mohr and Armin Nassehi and Matjavz Perc and Elena Petelos and Martyn Pickersgill and B. Prainsack and Joacim Rocklov and Eva S. Schernhammer and Anthony Staines and Ewa Szczurek and Sotirios Tsiodras and Steven Van Gucht and Peter Willeit},
  journal={The Lancet Regional Health - Europe},
How will the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic develop in the coming months and years? Based on an expert survey, we examine key aspects that are likely to influence the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe. The challenges and developments will strongly depend on the progress of national and global vaccination programs, the emergence and spread of variants of concern (VOCs), and public responses to non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). In the short term, many people remain unvaccinated… Expand

Figures from this paper

The winter dilemma
Understanding how individual protection-seeking behavior affects disease spread is crucial to prepare for the upcoming winter and future challenges. Expand
When do we need massive computations to perform detailed COVID-19 simulations?
The results indicate that accurate machine learning meta-models can be generated from simulation models with no strong interventions using small amounts of simulation data, and that machine learningmeta-models could be used in some scenarios to assist in faster decision making. Expand
Why we may need to rethink future SARS-CoV-2 vaccination strategies
  • P. Klimek
  • Medicine
  • The Lancet Regional Health - Europe
  • 2021


The Potential Future of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Will SARS-CoV-2 Become a Recurrent Seasonal Infection?
Three key considerations will make achieving herd immunity against COVID-19 challenging and some public health officials suggest that achieving winter herd immunity in the presence of new more contagious variants will require more than 70% to 80% of individuals to be immune. Expand
An action plan for pan-European defence against new SARS-CoV-2 variants
If measures are not taken to prevent the spread of novel variants with selective advantages, case numbers and hospital admissions will increase, and a surge in cases could lead to the breakdown of health-care systems. Expand
Lockdowns and the COVID-19 pandemic: What is the endgame?
It is suggested that a pure test-trace-isolate strategy is likely not practicable in most countries, and a degree of social distancing, ranging up to full lockdown, is the main public-health tool to mitigate the COVID-19 pandemic. Expand
COVID-19 vaccine challenges: What have we learned so far and what remains to be done?
This work offers a framework for understanding remaining and new policy challenges for successful global vaccine campaigns against COVID-19 as well as potential solutions to address them. Expand
Uncertain effects of the pandemic on respiratory viruses
Reductions in respiratory virus infections are linked to changes in health care–seeking behaviors and limited surveillance capacity, but mostly to the widespread implementation of nonpharmacological interventions (NPIs) to control SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Expand
COVID-19 vaccines for the European region: an unprecedented challenge
In the region's disputed territories, such as the South Caucasus, there are particular challenges with COVID-19 vaccine supply and coordination and WHO staff are working with member states and partners to find country-specific and subregion-specific solutions to these difficulties. Expand
Is coronavirus disease (COVID-19) seasonal? A critical analysis of empirical and epidemiological studies at global and local scales
Whether COVID-19 exhibits any seasonal features in a global and local perspective is discussed by collecting and providing summaries of the findings from empirical and epidemiological studies on the CO VID-19 pandemic during its first seasonal cycle. Expand
Neutralizing monoclonal antibodies for treatment of COVID-19
The precedent for passive immunization and lessons learned from using antibody therapies for viral infections such as respiratory syncytial virus, Ebola virus and SARS-CoV infections are reviewed and a need to understand factors such as the kinetics of viral load and its correlation with clinical outcomes is understood. Expand
COVID-19: cross-immunity of viral epitopes may influence severity of infection and immune response
Serological profiling provides a window into differential viral responses amongst patients with diverse outcomes, potentially mediating improved therapeutics and vaccines for SARS-CoV-2, and indicates an ‘adaptive immune response’ due to repeated/ increased CoV exposure in Asian/Middle Eastern populations underlies low morbidity seen in those regions. Expand
Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through the postpandemic period
Using existing data to build a deterministic model of multiyear interactions between existing coronaviruses, with a focus on the United States, is used to project the potential epidemic dynamics and pressures on critical care capacity over the next 5 years and projected that recurrent wintertime outbreaks of SARS-CoV-2 will probably occur after the initial, most severe pandemic wave. Expand