A first-digit anomaly in the 2009 Iranian presidential election

  title={A first-digit anomaly in the 2009 Iranian presidential election},
  author={Boudewijn F. Roukema},
  journal={Journal of Applied Statistics},
  pages={164 - 199}
  • B. Roukema
  • Published 16 June 2009
  • Political Science
  • Journal of Applied Statistics
A local bootstrap method is proposed for the analysis of electoral vote-count first-digit frequencies, complementing the Benford's Law limit. The method is calibrated on five presidential-election first rounds (2002–2006) and applied to the 2009 Iranian presidential-election first round. Candidate K has a highly significant (p<0.15% ) excess of vote counts starting with the digit 7. This leads to other anomalies, two of which are individually significant at p∼ 0.1% and one at p∼ 1… 
Fraud in the 2018 Egyptian presidential election?
ABSTRACT This research note scrutinizes official vote counts from the 2018 Egyptian presidential election. Drawing on data for 13,807 polling stations published by the Egyptian Electoral Authority,
To vote or to boycott ? Social contagion and the electoral uprising of the Iranian Green Movement in the 2013 presidential elections
The unexpectedly high turnout in the 2013 Iranian presidential elections played a decisive role in the surprising victory of Hassan Rouhani. Many opposition supporters suddenly decided to vote,
In Data We Trust: Proving Market Manipulation on the Tehran Stock Exchange
The Iranian financial markets play an essential role in the country's economic development. In 2019 and 2020, ordinary traders were encouraged by the political authorities to invest in state-owned
A Method of Text Attribution Based on the Statistics of Numerals
  • A. Zenkov
  • Computer Science
    J. Quant. Linguistics
  • 2018
The frequency distribution of the first significant digits in numerals of connected authorial English-language texts is considered and Benford’s law is found to hold approximately for these frequencies with a marked predominance of the digit 1.
A New Stylometry Method Basing on the Numerals Statistic
A new method of statistical analysis of texts is suggested. The frequency distribution of the first significant digits in numerals of connected authorial English-language texts is considered.
Using residual heat maps to visualise Benford’s multi-digit law
It has been known for more than a century that, counter to one’s intuition, the frequency of occurrence of the first significant digit in a very large number of numerical data sets is nonuniformly
Newcomb-Benford’s law has been promoted as a simple and effective way that would help for error, fraud and anomaly detection. In this study the conformity of the distribution of first digit of daily
Forensic Analysis of COVID-19 Data from 198 Countries Two Years after the Pandemic Outbreak
Examination of pandemic data provided by 198 countries worldwide two years after the outbreak of the deadly Coronavirus in Wuhan, China concluded that most countries have disseminated partially reliable data over 24 months, and the United States, Israel, and Spain spread the most consistent COVID-19 data with Benford's Law.
Application of Benford-Newcomb Law with Base Change to Electoral Fraud Detection
The invariance of Benford-Newcomb law under base changing is employed to test whether or not some data follow such distribution. Taking into account the Brazilian senate election in 1994, changes in


The Republicans Should Pray for Rain: Weather, Turnout, and Voting in U.S. Presidential Elections
The relationship between bad weather and lower levels of voter turnout is widely espoused by media, political practitioners, and, perhaps, even political scientists. Yet, there is virtually no solid
Blind Retrospection. Electoral Responses to Drought, Flu, and Shark Attacks
Students of democratic politics have long believed that voters punish incumbents for hard times. Governments bear the responsibility for the economy in the modern era, so that replacing incompetent
Reliability of confidence intervals calculated by bootstrap and classical methods using the FIA 1-ha plot design.
In simulation sampling from forest populations using sample sizes of 20, 40, and 60 plots respectively, confidence intervals based on the bootstrap (accelerated, percentile, and t-distribution based) were calculated and compared with thosebased on the classical t confidence intervals for mapped populations and subdomains within those populations.
Note on the Presidential Election in Iran, June 2009; available at http://www.umich.edu/wmebane/ note29jun2009.pdf
  • 2009
Steal the 2009 Iran Election? 2010; available at http://web.archive.org/web/ 20110708093949/http://brillwebsite.com/writings/iran2009election.html
  • 2009
A Statistical Derivation of the Significant-Digit Law
If distributions are selected at random (in any "unbi- ased" way) and random samples are then taken from each of these dis- tributions, the significant digits of the combined sample will converge to the logarithmic (Benford) distribution.
Identifying Electoral Fraud: A Novel Test and New Data From Nigeria
Note on the Frequency of Use of the Different Digits in Natural Numbers