A first-digit anomaly in the 2009 Iranian presidential election

@article{Roukema2009AFA,
  title={A first-digit anomaly in the 2009 Iranian presidential election},
  author={Boudewijn F. Roukema},
  journal={Journal of Applied Statistics},
  year={2009},
  volume={41},
  pages={164 - 199}
}
  • B. Roukema
  • Published 16 June 2009
  • Political Science
  • Journal of Applied Statistics
A local bootstrap method is proposed for the analysis of electoral vote-count first-digit frequencies, complementing the Benford's Law limit. The method is calibrated on five presidential-election first rounds (2002–2006) and applied to the 2009 Iranian presidential-election first round. Candidate K has a highly significant (p<0.15% ) excess of vote counts starting with the digit 7. This leads to other anomalies, two of which are individually significant at p∼ 0.1% and one at p∼ 1… 

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