A comparison of univariate methods for forecasting electricity demand up to a day ahead

@inproceedings{Taylor2005ACO,
  title={A comparison of univariate methods for forecasting electricity demand up to a day ahead},
  author={James W. Taylor and Lilian M. de Menezes and Patrick E. McSharry},
  year={2005}
}
This empirical paper compares the accuracy of six univariate methods for short-term electricity demand forecasting for lead times up to a day-ahead. The very short lead times are of particular interest as univariate methods are often replaced by multivariate methods for prediction beyond about six hours ahead. The methods considered include the recently proposed exponential smoothing method for double seasonality and a new method based on principal component analysis (PCA). The methods are… CONTINUE READING
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