A comparison of univariate methods for forecasting electricity demand up to a day ahead

  title={A comparison of univariate methods for forecasting electricity demand up to a day ahead},
  author={J. W. Taylor and L. Menezes and P. McSharry},
  journal={International Journal of Forecasting},
  • J. W. Taylor, L. Menezes, P. McSharry
  • Published 2006
  • Economics
  • International Journal of Forecasting
  • This empirical paper compares the accuracy of six univariate methods for short-term electricity demand forecasting for lead times up to a day ahead. The very short lead times are of particular interest as univariate methods are often replaced by multivariate methods for prediction beyond about six hours ahead. The methods considered include the recently proposed exponential smoothing method for double seasonality and a new method based on principal component analysis (PCA). The methods are… CONTINUE READING
    455 Citations

    Figures and Tables from this paper

    Functional time series approach for forecasting very short-term electricity demand
    • 31
    Short-Term Load Forecasting Methods: An Evaluation Based on European Data
    • 419
    • PDF
    Triple seasonal methods for short-term electricity demand forecasting
    • J. W. Taylor
    • Mathematics, Computer Science
    • Eur. J. Oper. Res.
    • 2010
    • 299
    • PDF
    Forecasting next-day electricity demand and price using nonparametric functional methods
    • 105
    • PDF
    Univariate forecasting of day-ahead hourly electricity demand in the northern grid of India
    • 3


    Short-term electricity demand forecasting using double seasonal exponential smoothing
    • J. Taylor
    • Computer Science
    • J. Oper. Res. Soc.
    • 2003
    • 523
    • Highly Influential
    • PDF
    Using combined forecasts with changing weights for electricity demand profiling
    • 53
    • PDF
    Short-run forecasts of electricity loads and peaks
    • 273
    Combination of forecasts in electricity demand prediction
    • 32
    Short-Term Load Forecasting Using General Exponential Smoothing
    • 389
    Optimal smoothing for trend removal in short term electricity demand forecasting
    • 91
    Forecasting electricity load demand: analysis of the 2001 rationing period in Brazil
    • 5
    • PDF
    Short-term load forecasting
    • 828
    • PDF
    Periodic Heteroskedastic Regarfima Models for Daily Electricity Spot Prices
    • 39
    • PDF