When truisms clash: Coping with a counterintuitive problem concerning the notorious two-child family
You know that a two-child family has a son. What is the probability that the family has two sons? And what is this probability if you know that the family has a son born on a Tuesday? The former…
A new version of the Monty Hall Dilemma with unequal probabilities
- EducationBehavioural Processes
Overcoming illusory inferences in a probabilistic counterintuitive problem: The role of explicit representations
- PsychologyMemory & cognition
Correct reasoning seems to depend more on the ability to consider different possibilities than on extensive practice with the game, when the dilemma was presented in the form of an adversary game.
Support theory: A nonextensional representation of subjective probability.
This article presents a new theory of subjective probability according to which different descriptions of the same event can give rise to different judgments. The experimental evidence confirms the…
Causality and Reasoning: The Monty Hall Dilemma
In the Monty Hall Dilemma (MHD) contestants try to choose which of three doors conceals a prize. After selecting a door, one of the other doors is opened by a host who knows where the prize is, but…
The exchange paradox: Probabilistic and cognitive analysis of a psychological conundrum
The term “exchange paradox” refers to a situation in which it appears to be advantageous for each of two holders of an envelope containing some amount of money to always exchange his or her envelope…
One game show, two boys, two aces, three prisoners - what's an AI to do?
- PhilosophyFLAIRS Conference
A unified treatment of Monty Hall, the three prisoners, the two boys, and the two aces is offered, which offers a unified treatment that explains this phenomenon in strictly technical terms, as opposed to cognitive or epistemic.
The probability of conditionals: A review
- EconomicsPsychonomic bulletin & review
A major hypothesis about conditionals is the Equation in which the probability of a conditional equals the corresponding conditional probability: p(if A then C) = p(C|A), which corroborate the model theory.
The psychology of dynamic probability judgment: order effect, normative theories, and experimental methodology
The Bayesian model is used in psychology as the reference for the study of dynamic probability judgment. The main limit induced by this model is that it confines the study of revision of degrees of…
SHOWING 1-10 OF 36 REFERENCES
Intuitive reasoning about probability: Theoretical and experimental analyses of the “problem of three prisoners”
A paradox of confirmation
Two out of three prisoners, a, b and c, are to be exiled, while the third goes free. The choice of the two has been determined by a fair draw, of whose outcome they are ignorant. Prisoner a is keen…
The Taming of Chance.
Acknowledgements 1. The argument 2. The doctrine of necessity 3. Public amateurs, secret bureaucrats 4. Bureaux 5. The sweet despotism of reason 6. The quantum of sickness 7. The granary of science…
On the psychology of prediction
In this paper, we explore the rules that determine intuitive predictions and judgments of confidence and contrast these rules to the normative principles of statistical prediction. Two classes of…
Presentation and content: The use of base rates as a continuous variable.
Do subjects, in probability revision experiments, generally neglect base rates due to the use of a representativeness heuristic, or does the use of base rates depend on what we call the internal…
Re-Encountering a Counter-Intuitive Probability
- ArtPhilosophy of Science
Remove all cards except aces and kings from a deck, so that only eight cards remain, of which four are aces and four are kings. From this abbreviated deck, deal two cards to a friend. If he looks at…