A closer look at the probabilities of the notorious three prisoners

@article{Falk1992ACL,
  title={A closer look at the probabilities of the notorious three prisoners},
  author={R. Falk},
  journal={Cognition},
  year={1992},
  volume={43},
  pages={197-223}
}
  • R. Falk
  • Published 1992
  • Medicine, Psychology
  • Cognition
The "problem of three prisoners", a counterintuitive teaser, is analyzed. It is representative of a class of probability puzzles where the correct solution depends on explication of underlying assumptions. Spontaneous beliefs concerning the problem and intuitive heuristics are reviewed. The psychological background of these beliefs is explored. Several attempts to find a simple criterion to predict whether and how the probability of the target event will change as a result of obtaining evidence… Expand
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