A Theoretical Model of Scenario Planning

@article{Chermack2004ATM,
  title={A Theoretical Model of Scenario Planning},
  author={Thomas J. Chermack},
  journal={Human Resource Development Review},
  year={2004},
  volume={3},
  pages={301 - 325}
}
  • T. Chermack
  • Published 2004
  • Psychology
  • Human Resource Development Review
This article attempts to address a lack of theory-based models in scenario-planning practice. By using Dubin’s 1978 quantitative theory-building methodology, this article provides a theoretical model of scenario planning. To clarify, several critical elements of scenario planning are proposed as well as how they are related, in what environments they operate, and under what circumstances. In addition, some logical consequences are offered based on the constructed model. Finally, the… Expand
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58 Citations
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Methods Citations
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The Problem Recent disruptive events introduced high volatility and uncertainty into the contemporary organizational environment whereby well-established organizations found scenario planning (SP)… Expand
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This article introduces the concepts of scenario planning and HRD. A discussion of the major areas of overlap is provided, the links are clarified in a strategic context, and clear opportunities for… Expand
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Documented scenario planning projects report a diverse cross section of organizational members. Yet most projects involve executive and senior management teams as their primary participants. Given… Expand
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References

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TLDR
The author develops a primer or step-by-step methodology for moving from scenarios to strategy, outlining four different approaches and suggests that only after a great deal of practice will managers be able to move from this elementary approach to a more intuitive and insightful use of scenarios as a guide to strategy. Expand
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