A Theoretical Model of Scenario Planning

  title={A Theoretical Model of Scenario Planning},
  author={Thomas J. Chermack},
  journal={Human Resource Development Review},
  pages={301 - 325}
  • T. Chermack
  • Published 1 December 2004
  • Business
  • Human Resource Development Review
This article attempts to address a lack of theory-based models in scenario-planning practice. By using Dubin’s 1978 quantitative theory-building methodology, this article provides a theoretical model of scenario planning. To clarify, several critical elements of scenario planning are proposed as well as how they are related, in what environments they operate, and under what circumstances. In addition, some logical consequences are offered based on the constructed model. Finally, the… 

Figures from this paper

Scanning Beyond the Horizon: Exploring the Ontological and Epistemological Basis for Scenario Planning

The two-step process of scenario building and action planning that constitutes scenario planning enables methodological rigor, theory testing, and good inquiry to be demonstrated by researchers

Formal and informal scenario-planning in strategic decision-making: an assessment of corporate reasoning

PurposeThe theoretical value of scenario-planning as a strategic tool is well recognized in literature. The purpose of this study is to explore the corporate reasoning of formal and informal usage

Envisioning and probing the model for policy learning and scenario planning

This paper describes the process of a combined system dynamics modeling and scenario planning approach. It empirically investigates how envisioning and probing system dynamic modeling has the

An Initial Conceptualization of Virtual Scenario Planning

The Problem Recent disruptive events introduced high volatility and uncertainty into the contemporary organizational environment whereby well-established organizations found scenario planning (SP)

Scenario Planning: Human Resource Development's Strategic Learning Tool

This article introduces the concepts of scenario planning and HRD. A discussion of the major areas of overlap is provided, the links are clarified in a strategic context, and clear opportunities for

Scenario Planning as Developing Leadership Capability and Capacity

Documented scenario planning projects report a diverse cross section of organizational members. Yet most projects involve executive and senior management teams as their primary participants. Given

Scenario planning as organizational intervention: An integrative framework and future research directions

This paper aims to identify four areas in need of future research to enhance the theoretical understanding of scenario planning (SP), and sets the basis for future empirical examination of its

Scenario-planning in strategic decision-making: requirements, benefits and inhibitors

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to explore the corporate requirements, benefits and inhibitors of scenario planning in strategic decision-making. Design/methodology/approach This paper is



From Scenario Thinking to Strategic Action

Scenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversation

This chapter discusses scenario planning in Organisations, three Competing Paradigms in Strategic Management, and the Management of Change.

Future‐focussed thinking: combining scenario planning with decision analysis

It is recommended that scenario planning should be adopted as a standard procedure because of its ability to challenge individual and organizational worldviews and the use of scenario planning prior to conventional decision analysis is termed as ‘future-focussed thinking’.

Definitions and Outcome Variables of Scenario Planning

Scenario planning has been receiving increased attention as a tool for considering the future in the midst of a rapidly changing business environment. This article examines available definitions of

The General Method of Theory-Building Research in Applied Disciplines

This chapter acts as a foundation for the journal by highlighting strategies commonly used in building theory and offers a generic, five-phase method of theory-building research.

Strategic Planning: Models and Analytical Techniques

This volume focuses on the use of models and analytical techniques in strategic planning, a management process involving consultation, negotiation and analysis which is aimed at ensuring effective

Case Study Research and Theory Building

The problem and the solution. This chapter overviews case study research and proposes a manner in which case study research can contribute to theory building in applied disciplines. Although theory

Social Construction Research and Theory Building

The problem and the solution. This chapter presents theory building from a social constructionist perspective. It asks what constitutes theory for a social constructionist and compares the

Learning from the future : competitive foresight scenarios

This chapter discusses the process of integrating strategy and Scenarios into a management practice, and some examples of this process can be found in the work of L. Fahey and R. Randall.