A Statistical Forecast Model of Tropical Intraseasonal Convective Anomalies

  title={A Statistical Forecast Model of Tropical Intraseasonal Convective Anomalies},
  author={Charles J V Jones and Leila M. V{\'e}spoli de Carvalho}
Tropical intraseasonal convective anomalies (TICAs) play a significant role in the coupled ocean–atmosphere system and the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) is the primary mode of this variability. This study describes statistical forecast models of intraseasonal variations. Twenty-four years of outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and zonal components of the wind at 200 (U200) and 850 hPa (U850) are used. The models use the principal components (PCs) of combined EOF analysis of 20–90-day anomalies… CONTINUE READING
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