A Statistical Approach to Crime Linkage

@article{Porter2014ASA,
  title={A Statistical Approach to Crime Linkage},
  author={Michael D. Porter},
  journal={The American Statistician},
  year={2014},
  volume={70},
  pages={152 - 165}
}
ABSTRACT The object of this article is to develop a statistical approach to criminal linkage analysis that discovers and groups crime events that share a common offender and prioritizes suspects for further investigation. Bayes factors are used to describe the strength of evidence that two crimes are linked. Using concepts from agglomerative hierarchical clustering, the Bayes factors for crime pairs are combined to provide similarity measures for comparing two crime series. This facilitates… 
Finding Patterns with a Rotten Core: Data Mining for Crime Series with Cores
TLDR
The goal is to assist crime analysts by providing automated tools for discovering crime series from within a database of crimes by proposing a subspace clustering method that relies on a key hypothesis that each crime series possesses at least one core of crimes that are very similar to each other, which can be used to characterize the modus operandi of the criminal.
Spatiotemporal-textual point processes for crime linkage detection
TLDR
The joint modeling of space, time, and text information enhances crime linkage detection compared with the state-ofthe-art, and the learned spatial dependence from data can be useful for police operations.
Spatial-Temporal-Textual Point Processes with Applications in Crime Linkage Detection
TLDR
A new statistical modeling framework for spatio-temporal-textual data is proposed and its usage on crime linkage detection is demonstrated and the implicit bias in text documents before embedding is reduced to remove any potential discrimination of the algorithm.
Crime Linkage Detection by Spatio-Temporal-Textual Point Processes
TLDR
This work proposes a new modeling and learning framework for detecting linkage between crime events using spatio-temporal-textual data, which are highly prevalent in the form of police reports, and captures the notion of modus operandi, by introducing a multivariate marked point process and handling the complex text jointly with the time and location.
Crime Linkage Based on Textual Hebrew Police Reports Utilizing Behavioral Patterns
TLDR
An automatic and language independent method for extracting behavioral patterns from police reports is proposed and a Siamese neural network is utilized to identify burglaries committed by the same criminals.
Breaking the Chain: How Arrests Reduce the Probability of Near Repeat Crimes
Objectives: Near repeat patterns have been identified for a host of different crimes, but effective strategies to reduce near repeats have had more variable results. This study identifies near repeat
Evaluating evidence in linked crimes with multiple offenders.
...
...

References

SHOWING 1-10 OF 118 REFERENCES
Partially supervised spatiotemporal clustering for burglary crime series identification
TLDR
This work proposes a Bayesian model‐based clustering approach for criminal events that utilizes spatiotemporal crime locations as well as crime features describing the offender's modus operandi, and produces posterior clustering probabilities which allow analysts to act on model output only as warranted.
Addressing problems with traditional crime linking methods using receiver operating characteristic analysis
Purpose. Through an examination of serial rape data, the current article presents arguments supporting the use of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis over traditional methods in
Behavioural case linkage with solved and unsolved crimes.
A Test of Case Linkage Principles with Solved and Unsolved Serial Rapes
Case linkage involves identifying crime series on the basis of behavioral similarity and distinctiveness. Research regarding the behavioral consistency of serial rapists has accumulated; however, it
An Outlier-based Data Association Method for Linking Criminal Incidents
Data mining case study: modeling the behavior of offenders who commit serious sexual assaults
This paper looks at the use of a Self Organizing Map (SOM), to link of records of crimes of serious sexual attacks. Once linked a profile can be derived of the offender(s) responsible.The data was
To link or not to link: a test of the case linkage principles using serial car theft data
The purpose of the present study is to test the case linkage principles of behavioural consistency and behavioural distinctiveness using serial vehicle theft data. Data from 386 solved vehicle thefts
Constructing Bayesian networks for criminal profiling from limited data
Using Bayes’ theorem in behavioural crime linking of serial homicide
Purpose. The study extends research by Santtila et al. (2008) by investigating the effectiveness of linking cases of serial homicide using behavioural patterns of offenders, analysed through Bayesian
A Distance Measure for Determining Similarity Between Criminal Investigations
TLDR
A new distance measure is introduced that is specifically suited to the comparison between investigations that differ largely in terms of available intelligence and employs an adaptation of the probability density function of the normal distribution to constitute this distance between all possible couples of investigations.
...
...