A Singular Chain of Events

  title={A Singular Chain of Events},
  author={Donald G. MacGregor and Bruce E. Tonn},

Global systems dynamics and policy: Lessons from the distant past

Many human societies on Earth have at times experienced what we would call a ‘crisis’. In the case of simple societies, in a wide range of environments throughout history, such crises have manifested

The Race for Evolutionary Success

This paper balances a review of the forces threatening species survival with a comprehensive scan of factors that could act as counterweights that could individually or in combination avert massive species extinction.

Long-term trajectories of human civilization

PurposeThis paper aims to formalize long-term trajectories of human civilization as a scientific and ethical field of study. The long-term trajectory of human civilization can be defined as the path

Global Catastrophes: The Most Extreme Risks

The most extreme risk are those that threaten the entirety of human civilization, known as global catastrophic risks. The very extreme nature of global catastrophes makes them both challenging to

Evaluating Methods for Estimating Existential Risks

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  • Computer Science
    Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
  • 2013
Evaluated methods that could be used to estimate the probability of human extinction include: simple elicitation; whole evidence Bayesian; evidential reasoning using imprecise probabilities; and Bayesian networks.

The Most Extreme Risks: Global Catastrophes

The most extreme risk are those that threaten the entirety of human civilization, known as global catastrophic risks. The very extreme nature of global catastrophes makes them both challenging to

Double catastrophe: intermittent stratospheric geoengineering induced by societal collapse

Perceived failure to reduce greenhouse gas emissions has prompted interest in avoiding the harms of climate change via geoengineering, that is, the intentional manipulation of Earth system processes.



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Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed

In his runaway bestseller Guns, Germs, and Steel, Jared Diamond brilliantly examined the circumstances that allowed Western civilizations to dominate much of the world. Now he probes the other side

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  • Art
    BMJ : British Medical Journal
  • 2003
Shortlisted for this year’s Man Booker prize, The Good Doctor is a tale of personal conscience and its outcomes. The novel tells the story of two doctors and the rural hospital in which they work.

Late Pleistocene human population bottlenecks, volcanic winter, and differentiation of modern humans.

  • S. Ambrose
  • Environmental Science, Geography
    Journal of human evolution
  • 1998
If Toba caused the bottlenecks, then modern human races may have differentiated abruptly, only 70 thousand years ago, and high genetic diversity in modern Africans may reflect a less severe bottleneck rather than earlier population growth.

American Theocracy: The Peril and Politics of Radical Religion, Oil and Borrowed Money in the 21st Century

events—which, they contend, continue to shape African life long after the original conflicts themselves have abated. The essays in the collection address two main themes. The first is the

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One of "our most insightful social observers"* cracks the great political mystery of our time: how conservatism, once a marker of class privilege, became the creed of millions of ordinary Americans


  • S. Goldhor
  • Environmental Science
    The Yale Journal of Biology and Medicine
  • 1964
The availability of carbon (C), nitrogen (N) and sulfur (S) for the vegetation has increased in many ecosystems on earth since beginning of the industrial revolution. The change in availability of

The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology

A radical and optimistic view of the future course of human development from Ray Kurzweil, whom Bill Gates calls "the best person I know at predicting the future of artificial intelligence."

The age of substitutability.

An abstract of this article, from a report by the authors, may be found in EAPA 1: 02316. It is re-announced here because of its better availability in Science. (LMT)