A Simplified Dynamical System for Tropical Cyclone Intensity Prediction

  title={A Simplified Dynamical System for Tropical Cyclone Intensity Prediction},
  author={Mark DeMaria},
A simplified dynamical system for tropical cyclone intensity prediction based on a logistic growth equation (LGE) is developed. The time tendency of the maximum sustained surface winds is proportional to the sum of two terms: a growth term and a term that limits the maximum wind to an upper bound. The maximum wind evolution over land is determined by an empirical inland wind decay formula. The LGE contains four free parameters, which are the time-dependent growth rate and maximum potential… CONTINUE READING
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