A Set-Theoretic Approach to Bayesian Process Tracing

@article{Barrenechea2019ASA,
  title={A Set-Theoretic Approach to Bayesian Process Tracing},
  author={Rodrigo Barrenechea and James Mahoney},
  journal={Sociological Methods \& Research},
  year={2019},
  volume={48},
  pages={451 - 484}
}
This article develops a set-theoretic approach to Bayes’s theorem and Bayesian process tracing. In the approach, hypothesis testing is the procedure whereby one updates beliefs by narrowing the range of states of the world that are regarded as possible, thus diminishing the domain in which the actual world can reside. By explicitly connecting Bayesian analysis to its set-theoretic foundations, the approach makes process tracing more intuitive and thus easier to apply for qualitative researchers… 

Updating Bayesian(s): A Critical Evaluation of Bayesian Process Tracing

Given the increasing quantity and impressive placement of work on Bayesian process tracing, this approach has quickly become a frontier of qualitative research methods. Moreover, it has dominated the

Explicit Bayesian Analysis for Process Tracing: Guidelines, Opportunities, and Caveats

This paper provides step-by-step guidelines for explicit Bayesian process tracing, calling attention to technical points that have been overlooked or inadequately addressed, and illustrates how to apply this approach with the first systematic application to a case study that draws on multiple pieces of detailed evidence.

Veil of ignorance Process Tracing and Contested Critical Observations

The problem of bias in the sources and evidence used to evaluate explanations in qualitative research is a longstanding topic (Goldthorpe 1991; Lustick 1996; Isacoff 2005; see also Thies 2002). The

Set Theoretic Methods

This new methodology, called QCA – Qualitative Comparative Analysis, is able to detect configurational patterns even for these small-N scenarios, but perhaps more interestingly it is fundamentally different from conventional statistics due to its asymmetric nature.

Rethinking the Methodological Foundation of Historical Political Science

  • Qipeng Shi
  • Philosophy
    Chinese Political Science Review
  • 2022
The basis of a methodology determines whether a research method can fit the core characteristics of a particular academic tradition, and thus, it is crucial to explore this foundation. Keeping in

A regularity theory of causality for the social sciences

This article discusses a regularity theory of causality (RTC) for the social sciences. With RTC, causality is a relationship between X and Y characterized by three features: (1) temporal order; (2)

Stalling the State: How Digital Platforms Contribute to and Profit From Delays in the Enforcement and Adoption of Regulations

While it is often claimed that the pace of digital transformation is such that its own, often glacial changes do not allow the state to catch up, we argue that technological companies, with the help

A Model for Assessing the Causality of Factors in the Development of Voluntary Pension Insurance in the Republic of Kazakhstan

Many countries have been experiencing a crisis in their pension systems for fiscal and demographic reasons. Voluntary pension funds are a way out of the crisis. The depth of the problem lies in the

Gradual, Cooperative, Coordinated: Effective Support for Peace and Democracy in Conflict-Affected States

This article analyzes the success factors for external engagement aimed at fostering peace in conflict-affected states. It focuses on a set of three factors that have been under-researched so far:

Critical Event Analysis in Case Study Research

This article develops a framework for the causal analysis of critical events in case study research. A critical event is defined as a contingent event that is causally important for an outcome in a...

References

SHOWING 1-10 OF 33 REFERENCES

Explicit Bayesian Analysis for Process Tracing: Guidelines, Opportunities, and Caveats

This paper provides step-by-step guidelines for explicit Bayesian process tracing, calling attention to technical points that have been overlooked or inadequately addressed, and illustrates how to apply this approach with the first systematic application to a case study that draws on multiple pieces of detailed evidence.

Mixing Methods: A Bayesian Approach

We develop an approach to multimethod research that generates joint learning from quantitative and qualitative evidence. The framework—Bayesian integration of quantitative and qualitative data

Comparative Hypothesis Testing Via Process Tracing

Causal inference via process tracing has received increasing attention during recent years. A 2 × 2 typology of hypothesis tests takes a central place in this debate. A discussion of the typology

The Logic of Process Tracing Tests in the Social Sciences

This article discusses process tracing as a methodology for testing hypotheses in the social sciences. With process tracing tests, the analyst combines preexisting generalizations with specific

Understanding Process Tracing

  • D. Collier
  • Sociology
    PS: Political Science & Politics
  • 2011
Abstract Process tracing is a fundamental tool of qualitative analysis. This method is often invoked by scholars who carry out within-case analysis based on qualitative data, yet frequently it is

Redesigning social inquiry

Through a series of contrasts between fuzzy-set analysis and conventional quantitative research, Ragin demonstrates the capacity for set-theoretic methods to strengthen connections between qualitative researchers' deep knowledge of their cases and quantitative researchers' elaboration of cross-case patterns.

Probability theory: the logic of science

Foreword Preface Part I. Principles and Elementary Applications: 1. Plausible reasoning 2. The quantitative rules 3. Elementary sampling theory 4. Elementary hypothesis testing 5. Queer uses for

Case Studies and the Statistical Worldview: Review of King, Keohane, and Verba's Designing Social Inquiry: Scientific Inference in Qualitative Research

Gary King, Robert O. Keohane, and Sydney Verba's Designing Social Inquiry exploits the metaphor of researcher-as-statistician to develop guidelines for conducting social scientific research that are

The Reverend and the Ravens: Comment on Seawright

The purpose of this Comment is to put the current debate regarding testing necessary conditions into perspective and to point out a particularly troubling aspect of the “all cases” research design