A Recursive Modelling Approach to Predicting Uk Stock Returns

@inproceedings{Pesaran1999ARM,
  title={A Recursive Modelling Approach to Predicting Uk Stock Returns},
  author={M. Hashem Pesaran and Allan Timmermann},
  year={1999}
}
This paper applies an extended and generalised version of the recursive modelling strategy developed in Pesaran and Timmermann (1995) to the UK stock market. The focus of the analysis is to simulate investors' search in `real time' for a model that can forecast stock returns. We ®nd evidence of predictability in UK stock returns which could have been exploited by investors to improve on the risk-return trade-off offered by a passive strategy in the market portfolio. Alternative interpretations… CONTINUE READING
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