A Posteriori Transit Probabilities

@article{Stevens2013APT,
  title={A Posteriori Transit Probabilities},
  author={Daniel J. Stevens and B. Scott Gaudi},
  journal={Publications of the Astronomical Society of the Pacific},
  year={2013},
  volume={125},
  pages={933 - 950}
}
  • D. StevensB. Gaudi
  • Published 6 May 2013
  • Geology, Physics
  • Publications of the Astronomical Society of the Pacific
Given the radial velocity (RV) detection of an unseen companion, it is often of interest to estimate the probability that the companion also transits the primary star. Typically, one assumes a uniform distribution for the cosine of the inclination angle i of the companion’s orbit. This yields the familiar estimate for the prior transit probability of ∼R∗/a, given the primary radius R∗ and orbital semimajor axis a, and assuming small companions and a circular orbit. However, the posterior… 

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