A Model for the Probability of Nuclear War

  title={A Model for the Probability of Nuclear War},
  author={Seth D. Baum and Robert de Neufville and Anthony Michael Barrett},
The probability of nuclear war is a major factor in many important policy questions, but it has gotten little scholarly attention. This paper presents a model for calculating the total probability of nuclear war. The model is based on 14 interrelated scenarios for how nuclear war can break out, covering perhaps the entire range of nuclear war scenarios. Scenarios vary based on factors including whether a state intends to make a first strike attack, whether the nuclear attack is preceded by a… Expand
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