A Dirichlet process model for classifying and forecasting epidemic curves

  title={A Dirichlet process model for classifying and forecasting epidemic curves},
  author={Elaine O. Nsoesie and Scotland Leman and Madhav V. Marathe},
  booktitle={BMC infectious diseases},
BACKGROUND A forecast can be defined as an endeavor to quantitatively estimate a future event or probabilities assigned to a future occurrence. Forecasting stochastic processes such as epidemics is challenging since there are several biological, behavioral, and environmental factors that influence the number of cases observed at each point during an epidemic. However, accurate forecasts of epidemics would impact timely and effective implementation of public health interventions. In this study… CONTINUE READING

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