A Copula-Based Conditional Probabilistic Forecast Model for Wind Power Ramps

  title={A Copula-Based Conditional Probabilistic Forecast Model for Wind Power Ramps},
  author={Mingjian Cui and Venkat Krishnan and Bri-Mathias S. Hodge and Jie Zhang},
  journal={IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid},
Efficient management of wind ramping characteristics can significantly reduce wind integration costs for balancing authorities. By considering the stochastic dependence of wind power ramp (WPR) features, this paper develops a conditional probabilistic WPR forecast (cp-WPRF) model based on copula theory. The WPRs dataset is constructed by extracting ramps from a large dataset of historical wind power. Each WPR feature (e.g., rate, magnitude, duration, and start-time) is separately forecasted by… 
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