A Brownian Motion Model for the Progress of Sports Scores

  title={A Brownian Motion Model for the Progress of Sports Scores},
  author={Hal S. Stern},
  journal={Journal of the American Statistical Association},
  • H. Stern
  • Published 1 September 1994
  • Education
  • Journal of the American Statistical Association
Abstract The difference between the home and visiting teams' scores in a sports contest is modeled as a Brownian motion process defined on t ∈ (0, 1), with drift μ points in favor of the home team and variance [sgrave]2. The model obtains a simple relationship between the home team's lead (or deficit) l at time t and the probability of victory for the home team. The model provides a good fit to the results of 493 professional basketball games from the 1991-1992 National Basketball Association… 

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