A Brief Theory of Epidemic Kinetics

  title={A Brief Theory of Epidemic Kinetics},
  author={François Louchet},
  • F. Louchet
  • Published 16 April 2020
  • Mathematics
  • Biology
In the context of the COVID-19 epidemic, and on the basis of the Theory of Dynamical Systems, we propose a simple theoretical approach for the expansion of contagious diseases, with a particular focus on viral respiratory tracts. The infection develops through contacts between contagious and exposed people, with a rate proportional to the number of contagious and of non-immune individuals, to contact duration and turnover, inversely proportional to the efficiency of protection measures, and… 

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