A Bayesian baseline for belief in uncommon events

@article{Palonen2016ABB,
  title={A Bayesian baseline for belief in uncommon events},
  author={V. Palonen},
  journal={arXiv: Applications},
  year={2016}
}
  • V. Palonen
  • Published 2016
  • History, Mathematics, Philosophy
  • arXiv: Applications
  • The plausibility of uncommon events and miracles based on testimony of such an event has been much discussed. When analyzing the probabilities involved, it has mostly been assumed that the common events can be taken as data in the calculations. However, we usually have only testimonies for the common events. While this difference does not have a significant effect on the inductive part of the inference, it has a large influence on how one should view the reliability of testimonies. In this work… CONTINUE READING
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