A Bayesian approach to the group versus individual prediction controversy in actuarial risk assessment.


Recent attempts to indict the use of actuarial risk assessment instruments have relied on confidence intervals to demonstrate that risk estimates derived at the group level do not necessarily apply to any specific individual within that group. This article contends that frequentist confidence intervals are inapposite to the current debate. Instead, Bayesian… (More)
DOI: 10.1037/h0093973


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