A Bayesian Prediction Model for the U . S . Presidential Election

@inproceedings{Rigdon2009ABP,
  title={A Bayesian Prediction Model for the U . S . Presidential Election},
  author={Steven E. Rigdon and Sheldon H. Jacobson and Wendy K. Tam Cho and Christopher J. Rigdon},
  year={2009}
}
It has become a popular pastime for political pundits and scholars alike to predict the winner of the U.S. presidential election. Although forecasting has now quite a history, we argue that the closeness of recent presidential elections and the wide accessibility of data should change how presidential election forecasting is conducted. We present a Bayesian forecasting model that concentrates on the Electoral College outcome and considers finer details such as third-party candidates and self… CONTINUE READING