A Bayesian Approach to Solar Flare Prediction

  title={A Bayesian Approach to Solar Flare Prediction},
  author={Michael S. Wheatland},
  journal={The Astrophysical Journal},
  • M. Wheatland
  • Published 26 March 2004
  • Physics
  • The Astrophysical Journal
A number of methods of flare prediction rely on classification of physical characteristics of an active region, in particular optical classification of sunspots, and historical rates of flaring for a given classification. However, these methods largely ignore the number of flares the active region has already produced, in particular the number of small events. The past history of occurrence of flares (of all sizes) is an important indicator of future flare production. We present a Bayesian… 

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