# A Bayes factor meta-analysis of Bem’s ESP claim

@article{Rouder2011ABF, title={A Bayes factor meta-analysis of Bem’s ESP claim}, author={Jeffrey N. Rouder and Richard D. Morey}, journal={Psychonomic Bulletin \& Review}, year={2011}, volume={18}, pages={682-689} }

In recent years, statisticians and psychologists have provided the critique that p-values do not capture the evidence afforded by data and are, consequently, ill suited for analysis in scientific endeavors. The issue is particular salient in the assessment of the recent evidence provided for ESP by Bem (2011) in the mainstream Journal of Personality and Social Psychology. Wagenmakers, Wetzels, Borsboom, and van der Maas (Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 100, 426–432, 2011) have… Expand

#### 169 Citations

Commentary: How Bayes factors change scientific practice

- Psychology, Medicine
- Front. Psychol.
- 2016

Dienes's main argument is one of best-fit-for-purpose: the Bayes factor pits the probability of the data under one hypothesis against that under another on equal ground, providing a symmetric assessment--the data may favor either hypothesis, or neither--as a continuous measure of evidence in the form of odds. Expand

Why Bayesian Psychologists Should Change the Way They Use the Bayes Factor

- Psychology, Medicine
- Multivariate behavioral research
- 2016

It is argued that a thorough investigation of problems of the Bayesian factor in the context of more encompassing hypotheses and statistical models is called for if Bayesian psychologists want to add a well-founded Bayes factor to the tool kit of psychological researchers. Expand

Meta Analysis of Bayes Factors

- Mathematics
- 2021

Bayes Factors, the Bayesian tool for hypothesis testing, are receiving increasing attention in the literature. Compared to their frequentist rivals (p-values or test statistics), Bayes Factors have… Expand

A Bayes factor meta-analysis of recent extrasensory perception experiments: comment on Storm, Tressoldi, and Di Risio (2010).

- Psychology, Medicine
- Psychological bulletin
- 2013

This analysis differs from Storm et al.'s in that it relies on Bayes factors, a Bayesian approach for stating the evidence from data for competing theoretical positions, and argues that this value is unpersuasive in the context of psi because there is no plausible mechanism and because there are almost certainly omitted replication failures. Expand

Feeling the future: A meta-analysis of 90 experiments on the anomalous anticipation of random future events

- Biology, Medicine
- F1000Research
- 2015

A meta-analysis of 90 experiments from 33 laboratories in 14 countries which yielded an overall effect greater than 6 sigma is reported, indicating that the database is not significantly compromised by either selection bias or by intense “ p-hacking”—the selective suppression of findings or analyses that failed to yield statistical significance. Expand

Feeling the future: A meta-analysis of 90 experiments on the anomalous anticipation of random future events.

- Psychology, Medicine
- F1000Research
- 2015

A meta-analysis of 90 experiments from 33 laboratories in 14 countries which yielded an overall effect greater than 6 sigma is reported, concluding that the database is not significantly compromised by either selection bias or by " p-hacking"-the selective suppression of findings or analyses that failed to yield statistical significance. Expand

Must psychologists change the way they analyze their data?

- Psychology, Geography
- Journal of personality and social psychology
- 2011

It is argued that Wagenmakers, Wetzels, Borsboom, and van der Maas have incorrectly selected an unrealistic prior distribution for their analysis and that a bayesian analysis using a more reasonable distribution yields strong evidence in favor of the psi hypothesis. Expand

How Bayes factors change scientific practice

- Mathematics
- 2016

Bayes factors provide a symmetrical measure of evidence for one model versus another (e.g. H1 versus H0) in order to relate theory to data. These properties help solve some (but not all) of the… Expand

Using Bayes to get the most out of non-significant results

- Computer Science, Medicine
- Front. Psychol.
- 2014

It is argued Bayes factors allow theory to be linked to data in a way that overcomes the weaknesses of the other approaches, and provides a coherent approach to determining whether non-significant results support a null hypothesis over a theory, or whether the data are just insensitive. Expand

Bayes factor approaches for testing interval null hypotheses.

- Mathematics, Medicine
- Psychological methods
- 2011

This article develops several Bayes factor 1-sample tests for the assessment of approximate equality and ordinal constraints, which are alternatives to previously developed Bayes factors, which do not allow for interval null hypotheses. Expand

#### References

SHOWING 1-10 OF 25 REFERENCES

THE STRENGTH OF EVIDENCE VERSUS THE POWER OF BELIEF: ARE WE ALL BAYESIANS?

- Psychology
- 2010

Although statisticians have the job of making conclusions based on data, for many questions in science and society prior beliefs are strong and may take precedence over data when people make… Expand

Why psychologists must change the way they analyze their data: the case of psi: comment on Bem (2011).

- Psychology, Medicine
- Journal of personality and social psychology
- 2011

It is concluded that Bem's p values do not indicate evidence in favor of precognition; instead, they indicate that experimental psychologists need to change the way they conduct their experiments and analyze their data. Expand

A practical solution to the pervasive problems ofp values

- Psychology, Medicine
- Psychonomic bulletin & review
- 2007

The BIC provides an approximation to a Bayesian hypothesis test, does not require the specification of priors, and can be easily calculated from SPSS output. Expand

Testing a Point Null Hypothesis: The Irreconcilability of P Values and Evidence

- Mathematics
- 1987

Abstract The problem of testing a point null hypothesis (or a “small interval” null hypothesis) is considered. Of interest is the relationship between the P value (or observed significance level) and… Expand

Bayesian t tests for accepting and rejecting the null hypothesis

- Psychology, Medicine
- Psychonomic bulletin & review
- 2009

To facilitate use of the Bayes factor, an easy-to-use, Web-based program is provided that performs the necessary calculations and has better properties than other methods of inference that have been advocated in the psychological literature. Expand

The Bayesian Two-Sample t Test

- Mathematics
- 2005

This article shows how the pooled-variance two-sample t statistic arises from a Bayesian formulation of the two-sided point null testing problem, with emphasis on teaching. We identify a reasonable… Expand

The importance of proving the null.

- Mathematics, Medicine
- Psychological review
- 2009

The simple computations and the intuitive graphic representation of the analysis are illustrated by the analysis of diverse examples from the current literature. Expand

Meta-analysis of free-response studies, 1992-2008: assessing the noise reduction model in parapsychology.

- Psychology, Medicine
- Psychological bulletin
- 2010

It was found that selected participants (believers in the paranormal, meditators, etc.) had a performance advantage over unselected participants, but only if they were in the ganzfeld condition. Expand

Feeling the future: experimental evidence for anomalous retroactive influences on cognition and affect.

- Psychology, Medicine
- Journal of personality and social psychology
- 2011

9 experiments are reported, involving more than 1,000 participants, that test for retroactive influence by "time-reversing" well-established psychological effects so that the individual's responses are obtained before the putatively causal stimulus events occur. Expand

Extending conventional priors for testing general hypotheses in linear models

- Mathematics
- 2007

We consider that observations come from a general normal linear model and that it is desirable to test a simplifying null hypothesis about the parameters. We approach this problem from an objective… Expand