• Corpus ID: 59429003

8 Modeling periodic waves of integration in the Afro-Eurasian world-system

  title={8 Modeling periodic waves of integration in the Afro-Eurasian world-system},
  author={Peter Turchin},
"Oscillatory dynamics of city-size distributions in world historical systems" 1
Oscillatory patterns of expansion/contraction have long characterized the dynamics of demographic, economic, and political processes of human societies, including those of exchange economies and
The 2010 structural-demographic forecast for the 2010–2020 decade: A retrospective assessment
It is found that such measures of socio-political instability as anti-government demonstrations and riots increased dramatically during the 2010–2020 decade in the US, UK, and several major Western European countries.
Assessing Simulations of Imperial Dynamics and Conflict in the Ancient World
This report considers the model from Turchin et al. (2013), where the evaluation is done on the prediction of "imperial density": the relative frequency with which a geographical area belonged to large-scale polities over a certain time window, and suggests that random attacks are a key trait of the original model.
Global Dynamics 1–1800 ce: Trends and Cycles
This chapter views the trend and cyclic components of the major absolute and relative indicators of world dynamics. We show that the second millennium ce saw a rather remarkable change in the trends
Simulating Imperial Dynamics and Conflict in the Ancient World
This work considers the model predicting large-scale complex societies from Turchin et al. (2013), and discusses a way forward by matching the probabilistic imperial strength from simulations to inferred networked communities from real settlement data.
Macroeconomic factors and the perception of criminal justice in society: the role of shadow economies1
The purpose of the present research was to investigate the relationship between economic factors and public attitudes toward contraband as well as emotional responses to the criminal justice system.
Oscillatory Dynamics of Urban Hierarchies 900-2000 Vulnerability and Resilience
It is interpreted as showing that trade, economic and conflict or socio-political instability in towns and smaller-cities of urban hierarchy have a greater effect on the health and productivity of larger cities as reflected in Zipfian size distributions, with growth proportional to size.
Cooperation, Punishment, Emergence of Government, and the Tragedy of Authorities
Under the conditions prevalent in the late Pleistocene epoch, coevolution of gene-related behavior and culturally transmitted group-level institutions provides a plausible explanation for the parochial altruistic and reciprocator traits of most modern humans.
This paper explores similarities and differences between the biotechnology sectors of Lithuania and India. In both cases, the biotechnology sectors are major motors of economic growth. In the case of
This interdisciplinary paper uses world-systems ana lysis as a theoretical framework to argue that both the 1870s, 1930's economic depressions reduced mean global temperatures. As global consumer


Agricultural Production in the Roman Economy A.D. 200-400
Archaeological evidence from 201 farm and rural settlements sites in Britain, Italy, Spain, France, Belgium, plus extensive survey evidence from Italy forms the basis for this study of late Roman
Historical Dynamics: Why States Rise and Fall
States’ (p. 6). Thornton accurately notes that 9/11 is not just a geopolitical challenge but also a cultural one. The real problem of the Western world therefore is ‘not so much Islamism as our own
Global Networking: a Timeline, 30,000 BCE–999 CE.
  • A web document at http://www.ciolek.com/GLOBAL/early.html. Last updated:
  • 2005
The Method of Demographic Cycles in a Study of Socioeconomic History of Preindustrial Society.
  • PhD dissertation,
  • 1999
The beginnings of Rome : Italy and Rome from the Bronze Age tothe Punic Wars (c. 1000-264 BC)
Using the results of archaeological techniques, and examining methodological debates, Tim Cornell provides a lucid and authoritative account of the rise of Rome. The Beginnings of Rome offers insight
Dynamical Feedbacks between Population Growth and Sociopolitical Instability in Agrarian States
Most preindustrial states experienced recurrent waves of political collapse and internal warfare. One possible explanation of this pattern, the demographic-structural theory, suggests that population
Lessons from population ecology for world - systems analyses of long - distance synchrony
  • World system history and global environmental change
  • 2007
Lessons from population ecology for world-systems analyses of long-distance synchrony. In: Hornborg, A. (ed.). World system history and global environmental change
  • 2007
Secular cycles
  • 2007