1.5 °C carbon budget dependent on carbon cycle uncertainty and future non-CO2 forcing

@inproceedings{Mengis201815C,
  title={1.5 °C carbon budget dependent on carbon cycle uncertainty and future non-CO2 forcing},
  author={Nadine Mengis and Antti-Ilari Partanen and Jonathan Jalbert and H. Damon Matthews},
  booktitle={Scientific Reports},
  year={2018}
}
  • Nadine Mengis, Antti-Ilari Partanen, +1 author H. Damon Matthews
  • Published in Scientific Reports 2018
  • Environmental Science, Medicine
  • Estimates of the 1.5 °C carbon budget vary widely among recent studies, emphasizing the need to better understand and quantify key sources of uncertainty. Here we quantify the impact of carbon cycle uncertainty and non-CO2 forcing on the 1.5 °C carbon budget in the context of a prescribed 1.5 °C temperature stabilization scenario. We use Bayes theorem to weight members of a perturbed parameter ensemble with varying land and ocean carbon uptake, to derive an estimate for the fossil fuel (FF… CONTINUE READING

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