“Wrong, but Useful”: Negotiating Uncertainty in Infectious Disease Modelling

  title={“Wrong, but Useful”: Negotiating Uncertainty in Infectious Disease Modelling},
  author={Robert Christley and Maggie M Mort and Brian Wynne and Jonathan M. Wastling and A. Louise Heathwaite and Roger Pickup and Zo{\"e} Austin and Sophia M. Latham},
  booktitle={PloS one},
For infectious disease dynamical models to inform policy for containment of infectious diseases the models must be able to predict; however, it is well recognised that such prediction will never be perfect. Nevertheless, the consensus is that although models are uncertain, some may yet inform effective action. This assumes that the quality of a model can be ascertained in order to evaluate sufficiently model uncertainties, and to decide whether or not, or in what ways or under what conditions… CONTINUE READING
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