( Un ) Predictability and Macroeconomic Stability ∗

  title={( Un ) Predictability and Macroeconomic Stability ∗},
  author={Antonello D’Agostino and Domenico Giannone and Paolo Surico},
The ability of popular statistical methods, the Federal Reserve Greenbook and the Survey of Professional Forecasters to improve upon naive forecasts of inflation and real activity has declined significantly in U.S. data moving from the preto the post-1985 sample. The decline is larger for institutional forecasters and models based on large information sets. In the most recent period, there is evidence of predictability for inflation only one month ahead, and for unemployment rate and nonfarm… CONTINUE READING

From This Paper

Figures, tables, and topics from this paper.


Publications citing this paper.


Publications referenced by this paper.
Showing 1-10 of 31 references

Evolving U.S. Monetary Policy and the Decline of Inflation Predictability

Benati Luca, Paolo Surico
Journal of the European Economic Association, • 2008
View 1 Excerpt

Why Has Inflation Become Harder to Forecasts?

Stock, James, Mark Watson
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking • 2007

Comparing Alternative Predictors Based on Large-Panel Factor Models

D’Agostino, Antonello, Domenico Giannone
European Central Bank working paper No • 2006
View 1 Excerpt

Has Monetary Policy Become More Effective?

The Review of Economics and Statistics • 2006
View 1 Excerpt

Un)Predictability and Macroeconomic Stability

D’Agostino, Antonello, Domenico Giannone, Paolo Surico
European Central Bank working paper No • 2006
View 1 Excerpt