( Un ) Predictability and Macroeconomic Stability ∗

@inproceedings{DAgostino2006U,
  title={( Un ) Predictability and Macroeconomic Stability ∗},
  author={Antonello D’Agostino and Domenico Giannone and Paolo Surico},
  year={2006}
}
The ability of popular statistical methods, the Federal Reserve Greenbook and the Survey of Professional Forecasters to improve upon naive forecasts of inflation and real activity has declined significantly in U.S. data moving from the preto the post-1985 sample. The decline is larger for institutional forecasters and models based on large information sets. In the most recent period, there is evidence of predictability for inflation only one month ahead, and for unemployment rate and nonfarm… CONTINUE READING

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Un)Predictability and Macroeconomic Stability

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