Zachary A. Holden

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Rapid climate change has the potential to affect economic, social, and biological systems. A concern for species conservation is whether or not the rate of on-going climate change will exceed the rate at which species can adapt or move to suitable environments. Here we assess the climate velocity (both climate displacement rate and direction) for minimum(More)
Climate refugia, locations where taxa survive periods of regionally adverse climate, are thought to be critical for maintaining biodiversity through the glacial-interglacial climate changes of the Quaternary. A critical research need is to better integrate and reconcile the three major lines of evidence used to infer the existence of past refugia - fossil(More)
[1] Much of the discussion on climate change and water in the western United States centers on decreased snowpack and earlier spring runoff. Although increasing variability in annual flows has been noted, the nature of those changes is largely unexplored. We tested for trends in the distribution of annual runoff using quantile regression at 43 gages in the(More)
We describe and then model satellite-inferred severe (stand-replacing) fire occurrence relative to topography (elevation, aspect, slope, solar radiation, Heat Load Index, wetness and measures of topographic ruggedness) using data from 114 fires > 40 ha in area that occurred between 1984 and 2004 in the Gila Wilderness and surrounding Gila National Forest.(More)
Climate strongly influences global wildfire activity, and recent wildfire surges may signal fire weather-induced pyrogeographic shifts. Here we use three daily global climate data sets and three fire danger indices to develop a simple annual metric of fire weather season length, and map spatio-temporal trends from 1979 to 2013. We show that fire weather(More)
Wildland fire is an important natural process in many ecosystems. However, fire exclusion has reduced frequency of fire and area burned in many dry forest types, which may affect vegetation structure and composition, and potential fire behavior. In forests of the western U.S., these effects pose a challenge for fire and land managers who seek to restore the(More)
Climate change effects on wildfire occurrence have been attributed primarily to increases in temperatures causing earlier snowpack ablation and longer fire seasons. Variability in precipitation is also an important control on snowpack accumulation and, therefore, on timing of meltwater inputs. We evaluate the correlation of total area burned and area burned(More)
This report provides managers with the current state of knowledge regarding the effectiveness of fuel treatments for mitigating severe wildfire effects. A literature review examines the effectiveness of fuel treatments that had been previously applied and were subsequently burned through by wildfire in forests and rangelands. A case study focuses on WUI(More)
Burn severity classifications derived from multitemporal Landsat Thematic Mapper images and the Normalised Burn Ratio (NBR) are commonly used to assess the post-fire ecological effects of wildfires. Ongoing efforts to retrospectively map historical burn severity require defensible, objectivemethods of classifying continuous differenced Normalised Burn Ratio(More)
Recent population declines to the high elevation western North America foundation species whitebark pine, have been driven by the synergistic effects of the invasive blister rust pathogen, mountain pine beetle (MPB), fire exclusion, and climate change. This has led to consideration for listing whitebark pine (WBP) as a threatened or endangered species under(More)