Ximing Wu

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In this paper we propose a testing procedure for comparing the predictive abilities of possibly misspecified density forecast models. We use the minimum Kullback-Leibler Information Criterion (KLIC) divergence measure to define the distance between the candidate density forecast model and the true model. We use the fact that the inverse-normal transform of(More)
In this paper we discuss how to compare various (possibly misspecified) density forecast models using the Kullback-Leibler Information Criterion (KLIC) of a candidate density forecast model with respect to the true density. The KLIC-differential between a pair of competing models is the (predictive) log-likelihood ratio (LR) between the two models. Even(More)
Marginal tax rates have larger income redistribution and equilibrating welfare effects than do social insurance or direct transfer programs. The Earned Income Tax Credit has smaller but still statistically significant desirable effects. Social insurance programs have little effect except for Supplemental Security Income, which increases equality. The(More)
We use a new method to estimate China's income distributions using publicly available interval summary statistics from China's largest national household survey. We examine rural, urban, and overall income distributions for each year from 1985-2001. By estimating the entire distributions, we can show how the distributions change directly as well as examine(More)
We are very grateful to Peter Lanjouw, Shaohua Chen, and James Galbraith for extremely helpful comments, and Youjuan Wang, director of the household survey division of the Urban Survey Organization at the National Bureau of Statistics of China, for explaining many features of the Chinese urban survey. Ximing Wu acknowledges financial support from Social(More)
A semi-parametric econometric model is used to study the relationship between malaria cases and climatic factors in 25 African countries. Results show that a marginal change in temperature and precipitation levels would lead to a significant change in the number of malaria cases for most countries by the end of the century. Consistent with the existing(More)
We develop a GMM estimator for the distribution of a variable where summary statistics are available only for intervals of the random variable. Without individual data, one cannot calculate the weighting matrix for the GMM estimator. Instead, we propose a simulated weighting matrix based on a first-step consistent estimate. When the functional form of the(More)