Xiaoshan Chen

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Most of the literature estimating DSGE models for monetary policy analysis assume that policy follows a simple rule. In this paper we allow policy to be described by various forms of optimal policy commitment, discretion and quasi-commitment. We find that, even after allowing for Markov switching in shock variances, the inflation target and/or rule(More)
In this paper we investigate the ability of a number of different ordered probit models to predict ratings based on firm-specific data on business and financial risks. We investigate models based on momentum, drift and ageing and compare them against alternatives that take into account the initial rating of the firm and its previous actual rating. Using(More)
Normal maize starch and high amylose maize starch (HAS) either in native or thermally treated forms were used to investigate the effect of starch structure on the production of metabolites and gut microbiota profile using an anaerobic in vitro system. The changes in starch structure during fermentation were investigated using scanning electron microscopy(More)
We estimate a New Keynesian DSGE model for the Euro area which allows for alternative descriptions of monetary policy (discretion, commitment, quasi-commitment or a simple rule) after allowing for Markov switching in policy maker preferences and/or shock volatilities. This reveals that there have been several changes in Euro area policy making, with a(More)
We propose an alternative approach to obtaining a permanent equilibrium exchange rate (PEER), based on an unobserved components (UC) model. This approach offers a number of advantages over the conventional cointegration-based PEER. Firstly, we do not rely on the prerequisite that cointegration has to be found between the real exchange rate and macroeconomic(More)
This paper employs an unobserved component model that incorporates a set of economic fundamentals to obtain the Euro-Dollar permanent equilibrium exchange rates (PEER) for the period 1975Q1 to 2008Q4. The results show that for most of the sample period, the Euro-Dollar exchange rate closely followed the values implied by the PEER. The only significant(More)
National inflation rates reflect domestic and international (regional and global) influences. The relative importance of these components remains a controversial empirical issue. We extend the literature on inflation co-movement by utilising a dynamic factor model with stochastic volatility to account for shifts in the variance of inflation and endogenously(More)