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Efforts to anticipate how climate change will affect future food availability can benefit from understanding the impacts of changes to date. We found that in the cropping regions and growing seasons of most countries, with the important exception of the United States, temperature trends from 1980 to 2008 exceeded one standard deviation of historic(More)
The United States produces 41% of the world's corn and 38% of the world's soybeans. These crops comprise two of the four largest sources of caloric energy produced and are thus critical for world food supply. We pair a panel of county-level yields for these two crops, plus cotton (a warmer-weather crop), with a new fine-scale weather dataset that(More)
This paper measures the economic impact of climate change on US agricultural land by estimating the effect of random year-to-year variation in temperature and precipitation on agricultural profits. The preferred estimates indicate that climate change will increase annual profits by $1.3 billion in 2002 dollars (2002$) or 4 percent. This estimate is robust(More)
There has been a lively debate about the potential impact of global climate change on U.S. agriculture. Most of the early agro-economic studies predict large damages (see, (1994)-hereafter MNS-propose a new approach: using the variation in temperature and precipitation across U.S. counties to estimate a reduced form hedonic equation with the value of(More)
* We thank David Bradford for initiating a conversation that ultimately led to this paper. ABSTRACT This paper measures the economic impact of climate change on US agricultural land. We replicate the previous literature's implementation of the hedonic approach and find that it produces estimates of the effect of climate change that are very sensitive to(More)
We show how yield shocks (deviations from a time trend), which are likely attributable to random weather fluctuations, can facilitate estimation of both demand and supply elasticities of agricultural commodities. We identify demand using current-period shocks that give rise to exogenous shifts in supply. We identify supply using past yield shocks, which(More)
We present a hedonic framework to estimate US households' preferences over local climates, using detailed weather and 2000 Census data. We find that Americans favor a daily average temperature of 65 degrees Fahrenheit, that they will pay more on the margin to avoid excess heat than cold, and that damages increase less than linearly over extreme cold. These(More)
Despite the existence of a large and growing literature on the potential impact of climate change on agriculture, there still exists some disagreement about the magnitude and even the sign. Our own research suggests that the impact on U.S. agriculture is likely to be strongly negative, based on a series of studies in which we link farmland values to climate(More)
We present new evidence on the relationship between weather and corn yields in Indiana between 1901 and 2005, extending earlier results for corn from 1950-2005. Indiana, a major corn-producing state has the best coverage of daily weather records for the early half of the 20th century. The effects of precipitation and extreme heat are shown to evolve over(More)