Winston R. Sieck

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Recency effects (REs) have been well established in memory and probability learning paradigms but have received little attention in category earning research. Extant categorization models predict REs to be unaffected by learning, whereas a functional interpretation of REs, suggested by results in other domains, predicts that people are able to learn(More)
Exemplar and connectionist models were compared on their ability to predict overconfidence effects in category learning data. In the standard task, participants learned to classify hypothetical patients with particular symptom patterns into disease categories and reported confidence judgments in the form of probabilities. The connectionist model asserts(More)
We describe the Aggregative Contingent Estimation System (, which is designed to elicit and aggregate forecasts from large, diverse groups of individuals.) is a project funded by the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity. The project, which is a collaboration between seven universities and a private company (Applied(More)
In May 2006, the US Army Research Laboratory and UK Ministry of Defense created the international technology alliance. The consortium of 26 partners including the ARL and MoD offers an open research environment in which leading US and UK companies and universities can collaborate (see table 1). It will also fuse the best aspects of the US Army's(More)
An inherent challenge in understanding behavior in other cultures rests in gathering, analyzing, and representing the relevant cultural concepts, beliefs, and values that drive decisions in those populations. In this chapter, we present Cultural Network Analysis (CNA) as a broad approach that aids in providing the most relevant cognitive aspects of cultural(More)
Overview • A multi-level network model was developed to support the network scientific analysis of cognitive state fluctuations in social systems. • The model is intended to support our understanding of how psychological, social and cultural forces contribute to the dynamics of collective cognition. • The model attempts to integrate ideas and concepts from(More)
This paper describes a tool for anticipating cultural behavior called, " CulBN. " The tool uses Bayesian belief networks to represent distributions of causal knowledge spread across members of cultural groups. CulBN simulations allow one to anticipate how changes in beliefs affect decisions and actions at the cultural level of analysis. An example case from(More)
Many of us share a strong intuition that justification forces us to better understand the situations we face. And there is substantial evidence indicating that this is often the case. However, there is a growing body of research showing that, under certain circumstances, explanation and justification can impair performance on a variety of cognitive tasks.(More)
Information operations (IO) specialists are like US political strategists in foreign lands, and they are concerned with affecting others' decision processes. In order to be effective, IO practitioners must be able to efficiently develop an understanding, frame or theory (i.e. " make sense ") about how decisions are made in a particular locale. As in(More)