William J. Nuttall

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The risks and returns associated with different choices of electricity generation technology cannot properly be considered in isolation. The paper considers their impact on an investing company, using Mean-Variance Portfolio (MVP) theory to identify optimal generation portfolios in liberalised electricity markets characterised by fuel, CO2, and electricity(More)
High fossil fuel prices have rekindled interest in nuclear power. This paper identifies specific nuclear characteristics making it unattractive to merchant generators in liberalised electricity markets, and argues that non-fossil fuel technologies have an overlooked ‘option value’ given fuel and carbon price uncertainty. Stochastic optimisation estimates(More)
Thorium is being touted as a potential wonder fuel. Proponents believe that this element could be used in a new generation of nuclear-power plants to produce relatively safe, low-carbon energy with more resistance against potential nuclearweapons proliferation than uranium. Although thorium offers some benefits, we contend that the public debate is too(More)
In this paper, we develop an agent-based model of a market game in order to evaluate the effectiveness of the U.K. government’s 2008–2010 policy on promoting smart metering in the U.K. retail electricity market. We break down the policy into four possible policy options. With the model, we study the impact of the four policy options on the dynamics of smart(More)
In this paper, we develop an agent-based model of a market game in order to evaluate the effectiveness of the UK government’s 2008-2010 policy on promoting smart metering. We also consider possible supplementary strategies. With the model, we test the effectiveness of four possible strategy options and suggest their policy implications. The context of the(More)
This paper reviews the limits of the traditional ‘levelised cost’ approach to properly take into account risks and uncertainties when valuing different power generation technologies. We introduce a probabilistic valuation model of investment in three base-load technologies (combined cycle gas turbine, coal plant, and nuclear power plant), and demonstrate(More)
Designers and managers of new investments in engineering systems look for ways to add value to their programs. One fundamental way to do this is by taking advantage of uncertainty. Although uncertainty is usually seen as negative in most investment projects, it can also increase performance if flexibility is incorporated into the system to capture upside(More)
Concerns about climate change, security of supply, and depleting fossil fuel reserves have spurred a revival of interest in nuclear power generation in Europe and North America, while other regions continue or initiate an expansion. We suggest that the first stage of this process will include replacing or extending the life of existing nuclear power plants,(More)