Willem J. H. Van Groenendaal

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In practice, it is important to evaluate the quality of research, in order to make decisions on tenure, funding, and so on. This article develops a methodology using citations to measure the quality of journals, proceedings, and book publishers. (Citations are also used by the Science and Social Science Citation Indexes, published by the Institute for(More)
Simulation models are often used to support decision making for problems with uncertain inputs and parameters. Three types of models are used: deterministic, risk, and uncertainty models. Risk models are popular with researchers, but can be used only when the joint probability distribution of the inputs and parameters is known. In many real-life situations,(More)
For the validation of trace-driven simulation models this paper recommends a simple statistical test that uses elementary regression analysis in a novel way. This test concerns a (joint) null-hypothesis: the outputs of the simulated and the real systems have the same means and the same variances. Technically, the differences between simulated and real(More)
Decision support often focuses on substantive rationality (what to choose). The procedural rationality (how to choose) of the process of long-term strategic decision making is then often neglected. In strategic decision making, supporting the decision process is more important than supporting the search for an ''optimal'' solution to the problem, especially(More)
Sensitivity analysis in investment problems is an important tool to determine which factors can jeopardize the future of the investment. Information on the probability distribution of those factors that affect the investment is mostly lacking. In those situations the analysts have two options: (i) apply a method that does not require knowledge of that(More)
For large investment projects sensitivity analysis is an important tool to determine which factors need further analysis and/or can jeopardize the future of a project. In practice reliable information on the joint probability distribution of factors affecting the investment is mostly lacking, so a stochastic analysis is not possible. This paper analyzes how(More)
The effectiveness of policies to reduce the use of energy depend on the elasticity of substitution between the various inputs and on the rate of technological progress. This paper presents a theoretical model emphasising energy investments' characteristics of uncertainty and irreversibility that result in hypotheses concerning the relative values of(More)
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