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Methods for Detecting Early Warnings of Critical Transitions in Time Series Illustrated Using Simulated Ecological Data
Many dynamical systems, including lakes, organisms, ocean circulation patterns, or financial markets, are now thought to have tipping points where critical transitions to a contrasting state canExpand
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Changing skewness: an early warning signal of regime shifts in ecosystems.
Empirical evidence for large-scale abrupt changes in ecosystems such as lakes and vegetation of semi-arid regions is growing. Such changes, called regime shifts, can lead to degradation of ecologicalExpand
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Spatial variance and spatial skewness: leading indicators of regime shifts in spatial ecological systems
Ecosystems can undergo large-scale changes in their states, known as catastrophic regime shifts, leading to substantial losses to services they provide to humans. These shifts occur rapidly and areExpand
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Early Warning Signals of Ecological Transitions: Methods for Spatial Patterns
A number of ecosystems can exhibit abrupt shifts between alternative stable states. Because of their important ecological and economic consequences, recent research has focused on devising earlyExpand
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Self-organization and productivity in semi-arid ecosystems: implications of seasonality in rainfall.
Spatial self-organization including striking vegetation patterns observed in arid ecosystems has been studied in models with uniform rainfall. In this paper, we present a fully seasonal rainfallExpand
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A cellular-automata model of flow in ant trails: non-monotonic variation of speed with density
Generically, in models of driven interacting particles, the average speed of the particles decreases monotonically with increasing density. We propose a counterexample, motivated by the motion ofExpand
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When good neighbors don't need fences: temporal landscape partitioning among baboon social groups
Intraspecific competition is a key factor shaping space-use strategies and movement decisions in many species, yet how and when neighbors utilize shared areas while exhibiting active avoidance of oneExpand
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Model for a macroscopically disordered conductor with an exactly linear high-field magnetoresistance
We calculate the effective resistivity of a macroscopically disordered two-dimensional conductor consisting of two components in a perpendicular magnetic field. When the two components have equalExpand
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Lack of Critical Slowing Down Suggests that Financial Meltdowns Are Not Critical Transitions, yet Rising Variability Could Signal Systemic Risk
Complex systems inspired analysis suggests a hypothesis that financial meltdowns are abrupt critical transitions that occur when the system reaches a tipping point. Theoretical and empirical studiesExpand
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Rising Variability, Not Slowing Down, as a Leading Indicator of a Stochastically Driven Abrupt Transition in a Dryland Ecosystem
Complex systems can undergo abrupt state transitions near critical points. Theory and controlled experimental studies suggest that the approach to critical points can be anticipated by criticalExpand
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