Vince Darley

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I seek to define rigorously the concept of an emergent phenomenon in a complex system, together with its implications for explanation, understanding and prediction in such systems. I argue that in a certain fundamental sense, emergent systems are those in which even perfect knowledge and understanding may give us no predictive information. In them the(More)
Strong competition and the high demands of consumer-goods companies for just-in-time delivery together with high standards of product and service quality are turning the top end of the corrugated-board box market into a very tough place to be. Customers order a large variety of different boxes, each with its own colour scheme and product specific printing,(More)
and others for their valuable comments and suggestions. We thank Paula Lozar for editing help. We acknowledge Nasdaq's financial support in working on this project. Usual dis-claimer applies. Abstract This paper presents the results of our research into the behavior of a dealer-mediated stock market, similar to Nasdaq, by using an agent-based model of the(More)
We propose a method for modelling economic systems in which outcomes depend locally on the predictions that agents make o f other agents. We develop population games in which each a g e n t a d a p t i v ely searches for a good model of its environment. We demonstrate that such systems can exhibit persistent dynamics, cyclic oscillations between low and(More)