Victor Richmond R. Jose

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Quantile assessments are commonly encountered in the elicitation of probability distributions in decision analysis, forecasting , and risk analysis. Scoring rules have been developed to provide ex ante incentives for careful and truthful assessments and ex post evaluation measures in the context of probability assessment. We show that these scoring rules(More)
S coring rules can provide incentives for truthful reporting of probabilities and evaluation measures for the probabilities after the events of interest are observed. Often the space of events is ordered and an evaluation relative to some baseline distribution is desired. Scoring rules typically studied in the literature and used in practice do not take(More)
Information measures arise in many disciplines, including forecasting (where scoring rules are used to provide incentives for probability estimation), signal processing (where information gain is measured in physical units of relative entropy), decision analysis (where new information can lead to improved decisions), and finance (where investors optimize(More)
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Most attacker-defender games consider players as risk neutral, whereas in reality attackers and defenders may be risk seeking or risk averse. This article studies the impact of players' risk preferences on their equilibrium behavior and its effect on the notion of deterrence. In particular, we study the effects of risk preferences in a single-period,(More)
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